How War Gaming and
Red Teaming Help Navigate Uncertainty

September 1, 2025

There’s something uniquely powerful and rewarding about watching a leadership team shift into a truly competitive mindset—thinking like a disruptor, anticipating a regulator’s response, and pressure-testing their own plan under fire. These exercises unlock critical thinking, bolster a counter competitive mindset and reveal how teams behave when the stakes are high.

And in 2025, the stakes are higher than ever. We’re operating in a world of yo-yo trade tariffs, rising political volatility, surging defense spending, and accelerating breakthroughs in AI.

These dynamics are reshaping consumer behavior, regulation, and global value chains in real time. In this environment, having a strategy isn’t enough. Testing it, challenging it, and adapting it under pressure are essential.

That’s where War Gaming and Red Teaming come in.

In Africa, we led a War Game exploring the impact of Starlink’s expansion and the broader rise of LEO satellite connectivity. What happens when previously unconnected communities suddenly have high-speed internet? How do Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) defend their ground—or transform their business models?

In higher education, we modelled how AI and digital learning could challenge the entire university model. Could AI tutors, micro-credentials, or employer-led academies unbundle the degree? What if the real value of a university became its network, brand, or in-person experiences?

Red Teaming, often run alongside or within a War Game, brings an added layer of value. It forces teams to confront uncomfortable realities – and to challenge internal orthodoxy that can quietly limit innovation.

In Nigeria, we helped simulate the strategic threat posed by Indian whiskey brands entering at scale. Their compelling price points, strong local execution, and cultural fluency disrupted the assumptions of global players—and showed just how quickly market share can shift.

In Eastern Europe, Red Teams tested the rise of isotonic and functional drinks, revealing their cannibalization of both beer and energy drink categories. We explored how these new formats are winning over younger, health-focused consumers—and how incumbents might respond or reframe.

Few beverage segments have moved faster—or taught tougher lessons—than the ready-to-drink (RTD) space.

In the U.S., we’ve witnessed a dramatic rise and fall: from the explosion of hard seltzers like White Claw and Truly, to the oversaturation and sharp pullback that followed. Dozens of brands launched. Many disappeared just as quickly. Speed-to-shelf was not enough.

Yet despite this volatility, RTDs—and the no/low alcohol segment in particular—remain potent growth engines globally. But only when approached with strategic discipline.

Across our recent War Games with global beverage leaders, three lessons stand out:

• Brand story matters more than speed: The winners weren’t always first. They were the ones that built cultural relevance and a clear identity beyond the trend.
• No/low isn’t a niche – It’s a battleground: Younger consumers, heath-conscious professionals, and wellness-driven lifestyles are reshaping the drinking occasion. Removing ABV isn’t enough—you need to reimagine the experience.
• Shelf space is a battlefield: In crowded aisles, focused portfolios, smart pricing, and trade execution win the day. It’s about pull, not just push.

Let’s be clear: War Gaming and Red Teaming aren’t “offsites with props.”

They’re leadership accelerators, designed to build lasting strategic capability across four dimensions:

• Anticipation: Foreseeing credible, divergent futures
• Adaptability: Rehearsing trade-offs before they’re forced
• Alignment: Creating shared understanding across teams
• Action: Turning insight into momentum

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